What's Next in Afghanistan

Today, the Pentagon announced it was sending approximately 12,000 additional troops to Afghanistan, approximately 8,000  Marines and one Army Stryker Brigade with about 4,000 Soldiers.  This will be the first time a Stryker Brigade has been deployed and these will be the first truly Armored Combat Vehicles to be deployed to Afghanistan to date.  Time will tell how it fares on the narrow, unimproved roads that are characteristic of the country. 

Defense Secretary Gates and President Obama have hinted that they will soon unveil a new way forward in Afghanistan.  General Petraeus has H.R. McMaster and a team of Officers conducting a review of the options there.  Numerous advisors who I greatly respect have weighed in on this issue, their names will be familiar to those of you who read regularly. 

• John Nagl, former Army Officer, current president of CNAS, and widely regarded as a counterinsurgency expert was recently a member of a panel talking about Afghanistan on NPR's Diane Rehm Show, you can listen to the segment here.
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• David Kilcullen, former advisor to General Petraeus and Condoleeza Rice, who writes for Small Wars Journal testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, an edited version of his statement can be found here.
  

Obviously a new top down strategy is what is needed here.  Here are some of my thoughts.

• Figure out what we want Afghanistan to look like. What are our strategic goals for Afghanistan and the region?  These need to be modest.  Afghanistan is in many ways stuck in the far past.  They simply do not have modern infrastructure outside of the major cities.  There is no road network, communication network etc.  People go there entire lives never knowing what exists outside of their valley.  The United States cannot afford to bring Afghanistan into the modern world, at least not in the near term, and certainly not with military forces.  Many other Government organizations will need to be involved, including the State Department, Agriculture, etc.  

• Stop the Drone War.  The fact that we have the capability to drop precision munitions and fire hellfire missiles with impunity from un-manned drones piloted by Airmen sitting in trailers in the Arizona Desert is a testament to the unmatched reach of our Armed Forces.  But in this conflict, the technology is doing more harm than good.  Kilcullen writes:  "If we want to strengthen our friends and weaken our enemies in Pakistan, bombing Pakistani villages with unmanned drones is totally counterproductive,"   Every civilian death, intentional or not, has drastic consequences on our ability to influence the populations of both Afghanistan and Pakistan.  I believe we have become too dependant on Air Strikes, which inevitably kill or maim innocent civilians.  David Kilcullen set forth the following rules to determine whether to carry out an attack on Pakistani soil.  

1) The target in question poses a threat to the international community (not solely to U.S.forces or interests in Afghanistan);
2) It is located in an area outside of effective Pakistani or Afghan sovereignty (e.g. in a non-controlled area of FATAor in a micro-haven elsewhere)
3) Pakistan has tried but failed to extend its sovereignty into the area, or to deal effectively with the target on its own
4) The target is positively identified and clearly distinguishable from surrounding populations, reducing the risk of collateral damage to a level acceptable to elected political leaders.

Enough for now, obviously there will be more news in the days ahead.

A Tale of 2 Stans

I've written here before that amateurs study tactics while professionals study logistics, in Afghanistan this may just be true.  Consider the events of the past 10 days or so.  First, Russia seemingly pressured Kyrgystan to close Manas Airbase, a major airbase, and then a major bridge through the Kyber pass in Pakistan was blown up.   Nearly 80% of the supplies for Coalition Forces are trucked in through Pakistan, of the remaining 20%, the majority is flown in, often via Manas Airbase. 

 As Tom Ricks said on one of the Sunday shows this week, it tough to win the war in Afghanistan when the enemy fights it in Pakistan.  So, we are now struggling to find new ways to flow equipment and troops into Afghanistan while at the same time increasing troop levels by as many as 30,000 Soldiers.  No matter the road we choose its going to be expensive.  

Other Afghanistan Notes and Tidbits

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) consists of the troops from all of the other countries other than the U.S.  As always American Soldiers have co-opted the acronym and made it their own, here are some of their ideas.

"I Suck At Fighting"

"Internationals Sit, Anglos Fight"

"I Suntan At FOBs"

"I Steal Americans' Food"

"I Sit At FOB"

"I Saw Americans Fight"

"I Stay Away from Fighting"

Finally, I've been reading alot of Tom Rick's Blog at Foreign Policy.com.  In case you've not heard of him, he wrote a scathing book on the first years for of the Iraq war titled Fiasco.  His lastest book is The Gamble, and talks about how the Surge came to be.  Anyway, he had a six part series on the Battle of Wanat.

Just before dawn last July 13, Taliban fighters attacked an outpost in eastern Afghanistan being established by U.S. Army soldiers and fought a short, sharp battle that left many American dead -- and many questions. But the U.S. military establishment, I've found after reviewing the Army investigation, dozens of statements given by soldiers to investigators, and interviews with knowledgeable sources, simply has not wanted to confront some bad mistakes on this obscure Afghan battlefield -- especially tragic because, as the interviews make clear, some of the doomed soldiers knew they were headed for potential disaster.

Finally, I have written here about LTC John Nagl, since retired.  He has joined a think tank called "The Center for a New American Security" which seems to be a center left national security organization.  Anyway, he wrote, again in Foreign Policy  about the challenges facing the United States in Afghanistan.  Nagl was one of the Officers who was charged with writing the FM 3-24, Counterinsurgency.  Again, a good read if you have a chance.  

Next up, some thoughs on the Levels of Warfare from FM 3-0, and how all wars are political. 

There are three levels of warfare. First is the Strategic. It’s the level at which national goals and policies are set and the whole spectrum of national power is incorporated - military, diplomatic, economic, and industrial. It’s the big of the big picture. Next is the Tactical level. It’s theater specific and zooms things in a notch or two and is aimed at setting conditions for strategic goals to be met within a theater of operations. It focuses on the near and mid-term fights to achieve victory. Last there is the Operational level. It’s the Soldier and groups of Soldiers. It’s man against his adversary. It’s small units fighting other small units.

I have some thoughts on where the breakdown is occuring, and how you can be successful at two of these levels yet fail in attaining your political objectives. 

Yes We Did!

I don't want to wade to deeply into political waters, but I think I at least owe a post or two to our new President.  Mary and I have both followed Obama for a little while, I read both of his books in the summer of 2006, and tracked him pretty closely ever since.  I predicted his victory more than two years before it happened, though not publicly, so where's the proof right?  Anyway, I was extremely gratified to see him win on election night.  I was so hopeful that as a country we could show the world that we are better than the last eight years have shown, and we did.  After Obama gave his speech that night, my comment was "Way to go America, way to get your head out of your collective ass"  Which spawned this logo:

Anyway, I won't write more, I'll include specifics in future posts.  Thanks for reading...if anyone did!

Army Suicide Rates Reach Highest Levels in Thirty Years

Army Data Show Rise in Number of Suicides

In 2008 the Army set yet another record for the number of Soldiers committing suicide, the first month of 2009 looks to continue that trend.  January has seen 7 confirmed suicides with another 17 still under investigation, but most likely suicides as well.  Obviously this has serious repercussions all the way up the Army chain of command.  Suicide prevention has always been a

 yearly training requirement for every Soldier.  Recently the Army has began a new "campaign" designed to encourage every Soldier to look out for his buddy.  During our recent training, the Chaplain remarked that you can't measure the success of a suicide prevention program by the number of "successful" suicides, you can only measure it by the number of suicides prevented.  I guess there is some truth to that, but the numbers are really alarming.  I think you can point to several keys for why the Army in particular is experiencing these unprecedented suicide rates

1. Demographics.  Young white males are the segment of the general population most likely to commit suicide.  Obviously there are hundred's of thousands of young white males serving in the Armed Forces
   
2. Availible Means.  Simply put, every Soldier knows how to use a gun.  Every Soldier serving in a combat zone carries one with him every where they go.  With the means to commit suicide so readily available, there is no buffer, or cooling off period.
3. Lengthy Deployments.  The Thanksgiving I spent in Iraq, '07, a unit had just arrived in country for a 15 month tour.  They were just flowing in at Thanksgiving, they would spend that Thanksgiving away from their loved ones.  Christmas, The Super Bowl, Valentines Day, at least one birthday, the 4th of July, Baseball season, another Thanksgiving, Another Christmas, Another Superbowl...In fact they are still there, hopefully they can be home for theis Valentine's day.  If you think that this isn't a factor, you're crazy.  Only the Army faces 15 month deployments, if we're lucky we get 12 months home with family before its back for another round.
4. Relationships Dissolving.  See Above...its alot to ask for someone to wait 15 months for a loved one to come home.  The Army seems to reward questionable/ unstable relationships monetarily.  Example:  Married Soldiers recieve a Basic Allowance For Housing (BAH) tax free each month, single Soldiers don't.  That is a strong incentive to get married immediately before a deployment.  Its alot to ask a wife you've known for six months to wait another 15 for you to get home.  A heartbreaking phone call or e-mail, the helplessness that comes with not being able to do anything about it, and you can see where it leads.
5. The toughguy mentality.  Put bluntly, in the Army those that seek treatment for any wound that isn't physical, are seen as weak.  Suck it up.  This is doubly true for a Soldier in a leadership position, instead of being an example of seeking help for a legitimate problem, many in leadership are hesitant to seek help because of the way they feel their subordinates will percieve them.  It takes along time to change the culture of an organization as "macho" as the Army, it may never happen.  Until recently, in order to obtain or extend a security clearance, we had divulge whether or not we'd ever sought treatment from a Mental Health Professional, answer yes, and alot more questions would be asked, and your career could be in jeopardy.  Official guidance has come out that says if you receive counsling for PTSD you are no longer required to check the yes block.  A good idea, but I doubt its enough.

I'm back

Anne's sick today, so I'm home, keeping her rested and fed.  An opportunity to write a bit then.  I haven't had a post on this blog in quite some time, doubtful that anyone will find there way back, but I'll try not to let that slow me down, I have quite a few things on my mind that I think need to come off.  There's no one theme obviously, here's a quick list off the top of my head.

• Obama victory
• Obama Inauguration
• Obama effect on how the world views the U.S.
• Iraq
• Afghanistan
• The Army

I guess that's a good start for now, so lets get going!